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2.
NPJ Vaccines ; 9(1): 80, 2024 Apr 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38641634

RESUMO

This collection of articles focuses on Streptococcus pyogenes (Strep A) vaccine research and innovation, with a focus on emerging efforts to understand and estimate the full societal value of Strep A vaccination.

3.
World Dev ; 1782024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38463754

RESUMO

Economists use micro-based and macro-based approaches to assess the macroeconomic return to population health. The macro-based approach tends to yield estimates that are either negative and close to zero or positive and an order of magnitude larger than the range of estimates derived from the micro-based approach. This presents a micro-macro puzzle regarding the macroeconomic return to health. We reconcile the two approaches by controlling for the indirect effects of health on income per capita, which macro-based approaches usually include but micro-based approaches deliberately omit when isolating the direct income effects of health. Our results show that the macroeconomic return to health lies in the range of plausible microeconomic estimates, demonstrating that both approaches are in fact consistent with one another.

4.
NPJ Aging ; 10(1): 13, 2024 Feb 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38331952

RESUMO

Medical and long-term care for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRDs) can impose a large economic burden on individuals and societies. We estimated the per capita cost of ADRDs care in the in the United States in 2016 and projected future aggregate care costs during 2020-2060. Based on a previously published methodology, we used U.S. Health and Retirement Survey (2010-2016) longitudinal data to estimate formal and informal care costs. In 2016, the estimated per patient cost of formal care was $28,078 (95% confidence interval [CI]: $25,893-$30,433), and informal care cost valued in terms of replacement cost and forgone wages was $36,667 ($34,025-$39,473) and $15,792 ($12,980-$18,713), respectively. Aggregate formal care cost and formal plus informal care cost using replacement cost and forgone wage methods were $196 billion (95% uncertainty range [UR]: $179-$213 billion), $450 billion ($424-$478 billion), and $305 billion ($278-$333 billion), respectively, in 2020. These were projected to increase to $1.4 trillion ($837 billion-$2.2 trillion), $3.3 trillion ($1.9-$5.1 trillion), and $2.2 trillion ($1.3-$3.5 trillion), respectively, in 2060.

5.
Eur J Health Econ ; 2024 Jan 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38182698

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Invasive meningococcal disease, an uncommon but severe disease, imposes catastrophic health and economic burdens. Cost-utility analysis (CUA) assumes separability in lifetime health and economic variables and cannot capture the full value of preventing such burdens. We overcome these limitations with a retrospective societal perspective cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of meningococcal serogroup B vaccination (4CMenB) of one infant cohort in the United Kingdom using a health-augmented lifecycle model (HALM) incorporating health's interactions with consumption, earnings, non-market time and financial risk. METHODS: We used a static Markov model of vaccination's health impact and an HALM to estimate the private willingness to pay (PWTP) for the intrinsic and instrumental value of health under perfect capital markets, financial risk protection in the absence of insurance against permanent disability, parental spillovers, and acute phase disability. We estimated social WTP (SWTP) incorporating social severity preferences. We estimated rates of return that inform health payer reimbursement decisions, finance ministry budgeting decisions, and legislature taxation decisions. An expert Advisory Board investigated the validity of applying the HALM to infant 4CMenB. RESULTS: The PWTP for a 2 + 1 vaccination schedule is £395, comprising £166 of disability insurance value, £79 of positive parental spillover value, £28 in the value of averting acute phase disability, and £122 in residual intrinsic and instrumental value of health. SWTP is £969. CONCLUSIONS: HALM-based CBA provides an empirically richer, more utility-theoretically grounded approach to vaccine evaluation than CUA, demonstrating good value for money for legislatures (based on private values) and for all decision-makers (based on social values).

6.
Infect Dis Ther ; 12(12): 2649-2663, 2023 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38048020

RESUMO

The global invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) landscape changed considerably during the COVID-19 pandemic, as evidenced by decreased incidence rates due to COVID-19 mitigation measures, such as limited social contact, physical distancing, mask wearing, and hand washing. Vaccination rates were also lower during the pandemic relative to pre-pandemic levels. Although policymakers may have shifted their focus away from IMD vaccination programs to COVID-19 vaccination programs, strong arguments support implementation and prioritization of IMD vaccination programs; IMD cases have increased in some countries and IMD rates may even have exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Additional concerns include increased susceptibility due to vaccination coverage gaps, increased incidence of other respiratory pathogens, immunity debt from lockdown restrictions, and increased IMD epidemiologic variability. The full range of benefits of widely available and effective meningococcal vaccines needs to be considered, especially in health technology assessments, where the broad benefits of these vaccines are neither accurately quantified nor captured in implementation policy decisions. Importantly, implementation of meningococcal vaccination programs in the current IMD climate also appeals to broader healthcare principles, including preparedness rather than reactive approaches, generally accepted benefit-risk approaches to vaccination, historical precedent, and the World Health Organization's goal of defeating meningitis by 2030. Countries should therefore act swiftly to bolster existing meningococcal vaccination strategies to provide broad coverage across age groups and serogroups given the recent increases in IMD incidence.

7.
PLOS Glob Public Health ; 3(10): e0002461, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37851624

RESUMO

The emergence of COVID-19 has displayed the importance of immunization and the need for continued public investment in vaccination programs. Globally, national vaccination programs rely heavily on tax-financed expenditure, requiring upfront investments and ongoing financial commitments. To evaluate annual public investments, we conducted a fiscal analysis that quantifies the public economic consequences to government in the United States attributable to childhood vaccination. To estimate the change in net government revenue, we developed a decision-analytic model that quantifies lifetime tax revenues and transfers based on changes in morbidity and mortality arising from vaccination of the 2017 U.S. birth cohort. Reductions in deaths and comorbid conditions attributed to pediatric vaccines were used to derive gross lifetime earnings gains, tax revenue gains attributed to averted morbidity and mortality avoided, disability transfer cost savings, and averted special education costs associated with each vaccine. Our analysis indicates a fiscal dividend of $41.7 billion from vaccinating this cohort. The bulk of this gain for government reflects avoiding the loss of $30.6 billion in present-value tax revenues. All pediatric vaccines raise tax revenues by reducing vaccine-preventable morbidity and mortality in amounts ranging from $7.3 million (hepatitis A) to $20.3 billion (diphtheria) over the life course. Based on public investments in pediatric vaccines, a benefit-cost ratio of 17.8 was calculated for each dollar invested in childhood immunization. The public economic yield attributed to childhood vaccination in the U.S. is significant from a government perspective, providing fiscal justification for ongoing investment.

8.
NPJ Vaccines ; 8(1): 166, 2023 Oct 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37903813

RESUMO

Recent research has documented a wide range of health, economic, and social benefits conferred by vaccination, beyond the direct reductions in morbidity, mortality, and future healthcare costs traditionally captured in economic evaluations. In this paper, we describe the societal benefits that would likely stem from widespread administration of safe and effective vaccines against Streptococcus pyogenes (Strep A), which was estimated to be the fifth-leading cause of infectious disease deaths globally prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. We then estimate the global societal gains from prospective Strep A vaccination through a value-per-statistical-life approach. Estimated aggregate lifetime benefits for 30 global birth cohorts range from $1.7 to $5.1 trillion, depending on the age at which vaccination is administered and other factors. These results suggest that the benefits of Strep A vaccination would be large and justify substantial investment in the vaccines' development, manufacture, and delivery.

9.
PLoS One ; 18(10): e0293144, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37862345

RESUMO

Noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions (referred to collectively as NMHs) are the greatest cause of preventable death, illness, and disability in South America and negatively affect countries' economic performance through their detrimental impacts on labor supply and capital investments. Sound, evidence-based policy-making requires a deep understanding of the macroeconomic costs of NMHs and of their distribution across countries and diseases. The paper estimates and projects the macroeconomic burden of NMHs over the period 2020-2050 in 10 South American countries. We estimate the impact of NMHs on gross domestic product (GDP) through a human capital-augmented production function approach, accounting for mortality and morbidity effects of NMHs on labor supply, for the impact of treatment costs on physical capital accumulation, and for variations in human capital by age. Our central estimates suggest that the overall burden of NMHs in these countries amounts to $7.3 trillion (2022 international $, 3% discount rate, 95% confidence interval: $6.8-$7.8 trillion). Overall, the macroeconomic burden of NMHs is around 4% of total GDP over 2020-2050, with little variation across countries (from 3.2% in Peru to 4.5% in Brazil). In other words, without NMHs, annual GDP over 2020-2050 would be about 4% larger. In most countries, the largest macroeconomic burden is associated with cancers. Results from the paper point to a significant macroeconomic burden of NMHs in South America and provide a strong justification for investment in NMH prevention, early detection, treatment, and formal and informal care.


Assuntos
Transtornos Mentais , Doenças não Transmissíveis , Humanos , Saúde Mental , Doenças não Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Transtornos Mentais/epidemiologia , Produto Interno Bruto , Brasil
10.
J Mark Access Health Policy ; 11(1): 2239557, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37583879

RESUMO

Background: The benefits of preventive interventions lack comprehensive evaluation in standard health technology assessments (HTA), particularly for rare and transmissible diseases. Objective: To identify possible considerations for future HTA using analogies between the treatment and prevention of rare diseases. Study design: An Expert panel meeting assessed whether one HTA assessment framework can be applied to assess both rare disease treatments and preventive interventions. Experts also evaluated the range of value elements currently included in HTAs and their applicability to rare, transmissible, and/or preventable diseases. Results: A broad range of value should be considered when assessing rare, transmissible disease prevention. Although standard HTA can be applied to transmissible diseases, the risk of local outbreaks and the need for large-scale prevention programs suggest a modified assessment framework, capable of incorporating prevention-specific value elements in HTAs. A 'Rule of Prevention' framework was proposed to allow broader value considerations anchored to severity, equity, and prevention benefits in decision-making for preventive interventions for rare transmissible diseases. Conclusion: The proposed prevention framework introduces an explicit initial approach to consistently assess rare transmissible diseases, and to incorporate the broader value of preventive interventions compared with treatment.

11.
Lancet Glob Health ; 11(8): e1183-e1193, 2023 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37474226

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the third leading cause of death worldwide and imposes a substantial economic burden. Gaining a thorough understanding of the economic implications of COPD is an important prerequisite for sound, evidence-based policy making. We aimed to estimate the macroeconomic burden of COPD for each country and establish its distribution across world regions. METHODS: In this health-augmented macroeconomic modelling study we estimated the macroeconomic burden of COPD for 204 countries and territories over the period 2020-50. The model accounted for (1) the effect of COPD mortality and morbidity on labour supply, (2) age and sex specific differences in education and work experience among those affected by COPD, and (3) the impact of COPD treatment costs on physical capital accumulation. We obtained data from various public sources including the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, the World Bank database, and the literature. The macroeconomic burden of COPD was assessed by comparing gross domestic product (GDP) between a scenario projecting disease prevalence based on current estimates and a counterfactual scenario with zero COPD prevalence from 2020 to 2050. FINDINGS: Our findings suggest that COPD will cost the world economy INT$4·326 trillion (uncertainty interval 3·327-5·516; at constant 2017 prices) in 2020-50. This economic effect is equivalent to a yearly tax of 0·111% (0·085-0·141) on global GDP. China and the USA face the largest economic burdens from COPD, accounting for INT$1·363 trillion (uncertainty interval 1·034-1·801) and INT$1·037 trillion (0·868-1·175), respectively. INTERPRETATION: The macroeconomic burden of COPD is large and unequally distributed across countries, world regions, and income levels. Our study stresses the urgent need to invest in global efforts to curb the health and economic burdens of COPD. Investments in effective interventions against COPD do not represent a burden but could instead provide substantial economic returns in the foreseeable future. FUNDING: Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, National Natural Science Foundation of China, CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Science, Chinese Academy of Engineering project, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College project, and Horizon Europe. TRANSLATIONS: For the Chinese and German translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.


Assuntos
Estresse Financeiro , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica , Masculino , Feminino , Humanos , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Produto Interno Bruto , China , Saúde Global
12.
JAMA Oncol ; 9(4): 465-472, 2023 04 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36821107

RESUMO

Importance: Cancers are a leading cause of mortality, accounting for nearly 10 million annual deaths worldwide, or 1 in 6 deaths. Cancers also negatively affect countries' economic growth. However, the global economic cost of cancers and its worldwide distribution have yet to be studied. Objective: To estimate and project the economic cost of 29 cancers in 204 countries and territories. Design, Setting, and Participants: A decision analytical model that incorporates economic feedback in assessing health outcomes associated with the labor force and investment. A macroeconomic model was used to account for (1) the association of cancer-related mortality and morbidity with labor supply; (2) age-sex-specific differences in education, experience, and labor market participation of those who are affected by cancers; and (3) the diversion of cancer treatment expenses from savings and investments. Data were collected on April 25, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Economic cost of 29 cancers across countries and territories. Costs are presented in international dollars at constant 2017 prices. Results: The estimated global economic cost of cancers from 2020 to 2050 is $25.2 trillion in international dollars (at constant 2017 prices), equivalent to an annual tax of 0.55% on global gross domestic product. The 5 cancers with the highest economic costs are tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (15.4%); colon and rectum cancer (10.9%); breast cancer (7.7%); liver cancer (6.5%); and leukemia (6.3%). China and the US face the largest economic costs of cancers in absolute terms, accounting for 24.1% and 20.8% of the total global burden, respectively. Although 75.1% of cancer deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries, their share of the economic cost of cancers is lower at 49.5%. The relative contribution of treatment costs to the total economic cost of cancers is greater in high-income countries than in low-income countries. Conclusions and Relevance: In this decision analytical modeling study, the macroeconomic cost of cancers was found to be substantial and distributed heterogeneously across cancer types, countries, and world regions. The findings suggest that global efforts to curb the ongoing burden of cancers are warranted.


Assuntos
Neoplasias , Masculino , Feminino , Humanos , Morbidade , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Neoplasias/terapia , Escolaridade , China
13.
Vaccines (Basel) ; 11(2)2023 Jan 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36851112

RESUMO

Health technology assessments (HTAs) of vaccines typically focus on the direct health benefits to individuals and healthcare systems. COVID-19 highlighted the widespread societal impact of infectious diseases and the value of vaccines in averting adverse clinical consequences and in maintaining or resuming social and economic activities. Using COVID-19 as a case study, this research work aimed to set forth a conceptual framework capturing the broader value elements of vaccines and to identify appropriate methods to quantify value elements not routinely considered in HTAs. A two-step approach was adopted, combining a targeted literature review and three rounds of expert elicitation based on a modified Delphi method, leading to a conceptual framework of 30 value elements related to broader health effects, societal and economic impact, public finances, and uncertainty value. When applying the framework to COVID-19 vaccines in post-pandemic settings, 13 value elements were consensually rated highly important by the experts for consideration in HTAs. The experts reviewed over 10 methods that could be leveraged to quantify broader value elements and provided technical forward-looking recommendations. Limitations of the framework and the identified methods were discussed. This study supplements ongoing efforts aimed towards a broader recognition of the full societal value of vaccines.

14.
Risk Anal ; 43(10): 2053-2068, 2023 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36649917

RESUMO

In 2021, the Biden Administration issued mandates requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for U.S. federal employees and contractors and for some healthcare and private sector workers. These mandates have been challenged in court; some have been halted or delayed. However, their costs and benefits have not been rigorously appraised. This study helps fill that gap. We estimate the direct costs and health-related benefits that would have accrued if these vaccination requirements had been implemented as intended. Compared with the January 2022 vaccination rates, we find that the mandates could have led to 15 million additional vaccinated individuals, increasing the overall proportion of the fully vaccinated U.S. population from 64% to 68%. The associated net benefits depend on the subsequent evolution of the pandemic-information unavailable ex ante to analysts or policymakers. In scenarios involving the emergence of a novel, more transmissible variant, against which vaccination and previous infection offer moderate protection, the estimated net benefits are potentially large. They reach almost $20,000 per additional vaccinated individual, with more than 20,000 total deaths averted over the 6-month period assessed. In scenarios involving a fading pandemic, existing vaccination-acquired or infection-acquired immunity provides sufficient protection, and the mandates' benefits are unlikely to exceed their costs. Thus, mandates may be most useful when the consequences of inaction are catastrophic. However, we do not compare the effects of mandates with alternative policies for increasing vaccination rates or for promoting other protective measures, which may receive stronger public support and be less likely to be overturned by litigation.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Humanos , Análise Custo-Benefício , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Vacinação , Pandemias
15.
Soc Sci Med ; 320: 115674, 2023 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36681057

RESUMO

We measure well-being across 193 countries from 1990 to 2019 using a new indicator: healthy lifetime income (HLI). Apart from the income component as captured by standard per capita gross domestic product, HLI incorporates health as a second important component. Overall, HLI can be interpreted as the income of the average person in an economy during the years in which the person is in good health. We show that HLI has particular strengths as compared with other measures such as the Human Development Index. These include requiring only easily accessible data for its construction, having an immediate economic interpretation and unit of measurement, not needing the application of arbitrary weights of subcomponents, and not being bounded from above. As compared with using per capita gross domestic product as a metric for well-being, we find that countries with better population health tend to fare better in the rankings. This provides a rationale for investments in health and helps shift the focus from material well-being (as an instrumental indicator of well-being) toward health (as an intrinsic goal).


Assuntos
Nível de Saúde , Renda , Humanos , Produto Interno Bruto , Países em Desenvolvimento
16.
Diabetes Care ; 45(11): 2611-2619, 2022 11 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36162008

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) Initiative recently introduced universal subsidized CGM funding for people with type 1 diabetes under 21 years of age in Australia. We thus aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of this CGM Initiative based on national implementation data and project the economic impact of extending the subsidy to all age-groups. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used a patient-level Markov model to simulate disease progression for young people with type 1 diabetes and compared government-subsidized access to CGM with the previous user-funded system. Three years of real-world clinical input data were sourced from analysis of the Australasian Diabetes Data Network and National Diabetes Services Scheme registries. Costs were considered from the Australian health care system's perspective. An annual discount rate of 5% was applied to future costs and outcomes. Uncertainty was evaluated with probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Government-subsidized CGM funding for young people with type 1 diabetes compared with a completely user-funded model resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of AUD 39,518 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Most simulations (85%) were below the commonly accepted willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD 50,000 per QALY gained in Australia. Sensitivity analyses indicated that base-case results were robust, though strongly impacted by the cost of CGM devices. Extending the CGM Initiative throughout adulthood resulted in an ICER of AUD 34,890 per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: Providing subsidized access to CGM for people with type 1 diabetes was found to be cost-effective compared with a completely user-funded model in Australia.


Assuntos
Automonitorização da Glicemia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1 , Humanos , Adolescente , Adulto , Automonitorização da Glicemia/métodos , Análise Custo-Benefício , Glicemia/análise , Austrália
17.
J Med Econ ; 25(1): 1051-1060, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35983718

RESUMO

AIMS: We evaluated the availability of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) to determine its value across all severe symptomatic aortic stenosis (SSAS) patients, especially those untreated because of concerns regarding invasive surgical AVR (SAVR) and its impact on active aging. METHODS: We performed payer perspective cost-utility analysis (CUA) and societal perspective cost-benefit analysis (CBA). The CBA's benefit measure is active time: salaried labor, unpaid work, and active leisure. The study population is a cohort of US elderly SSAS patients. We compared a "TAVR available" scenario in which SSAS patients distribute themselves across TAVR, SAVR, and medical management (MM); and a "TAVR not available" scenario with only SAVR and MM. We structured each scenario with a decision-tree model of SSAS patient treatment allocation. We measured the association between health and active time in the US Health and Retirement Study and used this association to impute active time to SSAS patients given their health. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and rate of return (RoR) of TAVR availability were $8,533 and 395%, respectively. CUA net monetary benefits (NMB) were $212,199 per patient and $43.4 billion population-wide. CBA NMB were $50,530 per patient and $10.3 billion population-wide. LIMITATIONS: Among study limitations were scarcity of evidence regarding key parameters and the lack of long-term survival, health utility, and treatment cost data. Our analysis did not account for TAVR durability, retreatments, and valve-in-valve treatments. CONCLUSION: Across risk-, age-, and treatment-eligibility groups, TAVR is the economically optimal treatment choice. It represents strong value-for-money per patient and population-wide. The vast majority of TAVR value involves raising treatment uptake among the untreated.


Aortic stenosis (AS) is a common and lethal heart disease. Surgical treatment has long been available, but its invasiveness limits uptake. More recently, transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) has emerged as a treatment alternative. Its minimal invasiveness has significantly increased treatment rates, but economic evaluations omit this benefit, risking undervaluation. We evaluated TAVR in elderly US severe symptomatic AS patients, using payer perspective cost-utility analysis (CUA) and societal perspective cost-benefit analysis (CBA). Both CUA and CBA incorporated TAVR's impact on treatment rates. Given patient preferences for treatment options promoting active aging, our CBA used the value of active time as a benefit measure. We found that CUA/CBA net monetary benefits are $212,199/$50,530 per patient. Across risk-, age-, and treatment-eligibility groups, TAVR is the economically optimal treatment choice over surgery and medical management. It represents strong value-for-money per patient and population-wide. Increased treatment uptake accounts for the vast share of TAVR's value.


Assuntos
Estenose da Valva Aórtica , Implante de Prótese de Valva Cardíaca , Substituição da Valva Aórtica Transcateter , Idoso , Valva Aórtica/cirurgia , Estenose da Valva Aórtica/cirurgia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Humanos , Fatores de Risco , Resultado do Tratamento
18.
EClinicalMedicine ; 51: 101580, 2022 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35898316

RESUMO

Background: The burden of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRDs) is expected to grow rapidly with population aging, especially in low- and middle-income countries, in the next few decades. We used a willingness-to-pay approach to project the global, regional, and national economic burden of ADRDs from 2019 to 2050 under status quo. Methods: We projected age group and country-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to ADRDs in future years based on historical growth in disease burden and available population projections. We used country-specific extrapolations of the value of a statistical life (VSL) year and its future projections based on historical income growth to estimate the economic burden - measured in terms of the value of lost DALYs - of ADRDs. A probabilistic uncertainty analysis was used to calculate point estimates and 95% uncertainty bounds of the economic burden. Findings: In 2019, the global VSL-based economic burden of ADRDs was an estimated $2.8 trillion. The burden was projected to increase to $4.7 trillion (95% uncertainty bound: $4 trillion-$5.5 trillion) in 2030, $8.5 trillion ($6.8 trillion-$10.8 trillion) in 2040, and $16.9 trillion ($11.3 trillion-$27.3 trillion) in 2050. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) would account for 65% of the global VSL-based economic burden in 2050, as compared with only 18% in 2019. Within LMICs, upper-middle income countries would carry the largest VSL-based economic burden by 2050 (92% of LMICs burden and 60% of global burden). Interpretation: ADRDs have a large and inequitable projected future VSL-based economic burden. Funding: The Davos Alzheimer's Collaborative.

19.
Appl Health Econ Health Policy ; 20(3): 371-381, 2022 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35275389

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: For low- and middle-income countries, the forecasted incremental value to society created by a class of new prescription drugs would be a useful criterion to prioritize the licensing, subsidization, and provision of new drugs. OBJECTIVES: We provide a methodology to forecast the value of a new class of drugs, defined as the incremental value obtained in the scenario in which the new class of drugs is available along with existing drugs compared with the scenario of existing drugs only. We forecasted the value created by direct-acting antiviral drugs to treat chronic hepatitis C in India. METHOD: We conducted a physician survey together with an aggregate multinomial logit model to forecast for each patient type the fraction of physicians who would prescribe the new drug under different scenarios. Value was determined by the monetary equivalent of increased life expectancy, reduced disability, and decreased future infection of others, minus drug cost, all treatment-related costs, and the cost of side effects. RESULTS: We forecasted that the introduction of direct-acting antiviral drugs is likely to create USD11.5 billion of value in India over a 5-year period, based on a 'realistic' assumption about the growth rate of India's per capita GDP. Under 'pessimistic' and 'optimistic' assumptions about the growth rate, the value changes to USD6.5 and 22.5 billion, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: There is major value likely to be created by the new direct-acting antiviral drugs in treating hepatitis C in India; this is consistent with the Indian Government's decision to provide the drugs free of cost.


Assuntos
Hepatite C Crônica , Hepatite C , Medicamentos sob Prescrição , Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Análise Custo-Benefício , Hepatite C/tratamento farmacológico , Hepatite C Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Humanos , Índia , Medicamentos sob Prescrição/uso terapêutico
20.
Nat Aging ; 2(11): 1000-1007, 2022 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37118083

RESUMO

Vision impairment and blindness are strongly associated with aging and late-life disability. While home to about 17% of the world's population, an estimated 25% of visually impaired people globally live in India. This proportion is expected to increase as India's population rapidly ages and continues to grow. There is a need for up-to-date epidemiologic data on the prevalence of vision impairment and blindness in India and on the socioeconomic determinants of poor vision, especially among older adults, to promote visual and overall health and well-being in later life. This paper uses newly available data from Wave 1 (2017-2019) of the population-based Longitudinal Ageing Study in India to estimate the overall and sex-specific prevalence of presenting visual acuity impairment and blindness among individuals aged 45 and older at the national level and for all constituent states and union territories. Overall, 33.8% (95% confidence interval: 33.31%, 34.26%) of the Indian population aged 45 and older had distance visual acuity impairment or was blind (visual acuity in the better-seeing eye < 20/40). The age-standardized prevalence varied considerably among states (22.3-54.6%), and women were more likely than men to be visually impaired or blind in all states. Near visual acuity impairment was also highly prevalent (43.0%, 95% confidence interval: 42.45%, 43.46%). Vision impairment and blindness were more common among marginalized groups and were associated with lower socioeconomic status. Findings from this study are relevant for surveillance of vision health, design of targeted eye care policies and programs and efforts to promote human and economic development.


Assuntos
Baixa Visão , Pessoas com Deficiência Visual , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Envelhecimento , Cegueira/epidemiologia , Índia/epidemiologia , Prevalência , Baixa Visão/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade
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